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　　While international telecom giants step up marketing campaigns for mobile TV, Chinese cell phone manufacturers take a wait-and-see attitude, driven by a mountain of obstacles
　　
　　Mobile TV was thrust into the spotlight at this year’s 3GSM World Congress held in Barcelona, Spain, in mid-February. But while large multinational telecom companies like Nokia, Alcatel, Samsung and Sony Ericsson were all on hand to push their mobile TV networks and handsets at the international mobile show, there seems no way this technology will be seen in China in the foreseeable future.
　　Citing reasons ranging from government licensing to concerns about the lack of a unified standard for China’s mobile phone TV industry, China’s top cell phone makers are reluctant to become involved in production.
　　
　　Lucrative market
　　
　　At the congress, Philippe Keryer, President of Alcatel’s Mobile Division, sounded a clarion call for the need to move into the Chinese market. As China will host the Olympics in 2008, the telecom operators should be well prepared for launching commercial mobile TV services by the end of 2007, so that their customers can view Olympic events on their cell phones, he said.
　　China has the largest number of cell phone users in the world. By the end of 2005, the number hit nearly 300 million, accounting for about 18 percent of the world’s total. Of these users, 50 percent upgrade their cell phones every one to two years, while nearly 20 percent use their phones for less than a year before buying new ones.
　　China is therefore believed to be a huge potential market for multinationals. According to Herbert Mittermayr, Vice President of Alcatel Mobile TV, Alcatel has begun discussions on developing cell TV services with some network operators including China Mobile and on the licensing of the TV programs with China’s State Administration of Radio, Film and Television (SARFT).
　　He Qingyuan, President of Nokia (China) Investment Co. Ltd., announced in February that mobile TV would be one of Nokia’s key products in 2006.
　　Compared with Alcatel and Nokia, their South Korean counterparts have advanced at a quicker pace. According to the Beijing R&D Center of the South Korean Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute, terrestrial DMB (digital multimedia broadcasting), a mobile TV technology, is set to come into operation in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong in the first half of this year.
　　In May last year, China Unicom unveiled its “U-web” cell phone video service, the first mobile TV service in China. China Mobile, another large telecom company, rushed to follow suit, launching a mobile TV service based on the GPRS network shortly thereafter.
　　Latest statistics show that China Unicom Shanghai currently has 20,000 mobile TV subscribers. However, China Mobile’s mobile TV subscribers exceeded 150,000 last year, and in Shanghai alone, the number was over 20,000.
　　CCW Research, a leading IT consulting firm in China, estimates the mobile TV market at 16.7 million yuan in 2005, up 153 percent over the previous year. In 2006, as the 3G technology is put into commercial application, this industry is poised to expand. The 2008 Beijing Olympics will give added impetus to this industry, which is predicted to have a 150 million-yuan market by that year.
　　Research conducted by Norson Telecom Consulting indicates China’s mobile TV industry will rise to become a 1.3 billion-yuan business with 52.2 million subscribers nationwide by 2008.
　　
　　Too many hurdles
　　
　　Yet despite these huge numbers and the activity in the service side, the domestic mobile TV industry has remained static. In China, mobile TV is identified as a media source and thus falls under the censorship regulations of SARFT, who has introduced a strict licensing policy over the industry. Without the SARFT license, operators are only permitted to conduct preliminary testing or trial services on a small scale.
　　To date, SARFT has only granted a license to one organization, namely the Shanghai Media Group (SMG). China’s second largest media group, SMG comprises TV and radio broadcasting facilities.
　　Once licensed, SMG cooperated with China Mobile Shanghai, adopting the “broadcast model” of mobile TV service where the former provides TV programs via satellite TV using the latter’s telecom network. As a result, the cost is relatively low, with clients enjoying unlimited TV programs for a fee of 30 yuan a month.
　　Telecom companies say that they should have the right to operate the whole system, because mobile TV, as they see it, is an additional feature of telecommunications. However, to date the government has not been responsive to this request. The companies therefore began to explore independent avenues, coming up with the “telecom model,” which allows them to transmit their independently produced programs on their own network, which is, of course, far more costly. At present, China Unicom charges 12 yuan for one minute of data flow. It therefore takes 720 yuan to watch cell phone TV for just one hour, a luxury that ordinary consumers will definitely find unacceptable. High fees would therefore seriously hinder mobile TV from gaining wide popularity in China.
　　In early March, some media reported that Shanghai Oriental Pearl, a subsidiary of the SMG, is expected to launch DMB mobile TV in the first half of this year as one of its core projects. A mobile TV network covering the whole of Shanghai will be completed in just two to three months.
　　Yet despite opening network services, Chinese top mobile phone makers, in contrast to their aggressive foreign peers, have taken a prudent attitude toward mobile TV. While foreign brands such as Nokia, Motorola, Sony Ericsson and Samsung have unveiled their TV-equipped cell phones, Chinese top phone makers have yet to come up with these products and seem reluctant to do so.
　　According to Liu Fengxi, Deputy General Manager of Konka’s communications division, Konka has no plan to produce TV-equipped cell phones at the moment, citing market immaturity and licensing issues as their reason.
　　Su Lijun, Director of TCL’s Marketing Department, said TCL is currently not making TV cell phones, because of the licensing issues and varied technical standards.
　　A spokesperson for Bird disclosed that the company is not planning to produce TV phones right now, because of the unpredictable market prospects and varied technical standards. The spokesperson is also worried about the availability of TV programs, a fallout of strict licensing.
　　Amoisonic’s Wang Zhiquan pointed out that mobile TV would not enter the mainstream market for the foreseeable future, as the present technology does not allow users to view high-quality TV programs on a small cell phone display screen.
　　The projections, however, must be weighing heavily on the minds of these manufacturers. Herbert Mittermayr estimated the number of mobile TV subscribers worldwide would reach over 100 million by 2010, generating revenue exceeding $10 billion.
　　In early March, Nokia projected that mobile TV, still a novelty at present, would become widely popular by 2008. The prediction is backed by survey results released earlier by the company: Of the 500 clients who subscribed to its mobile TV service on a trial basis, 41 percent were willing to tune into TV broadcasts on their cell phones for a fee.
　　
　　Lacking an industry standard
　　
　　Another hitch to the process is the current diverse standards used in China’s mobile TV application. According to Wu Xianlun, a technical expert at the SARFT, mobile TV service falls into two categories in terms of the operational model: “broadcast model” and “telecom model.”
　　The broadcast model has two operation modes. Under one of them, TV broadcasters provide both the content of the TV programs and the mobile TV operation network. After attaching a chip on their cell phone, clients can tune into TV programs on the phone display. The programs are free of charge, with the revenue of the companies mainly coming from advertising.
　　Under the other mode, TV broadcasters and telecom companies work together. The former is responsible for producing the programs and operating the terrestrial wireless network, whereas the latter can add interactive features and collect fees. Europe’s DVB-H and South Korea’s DMB are main industry standards of the broadcasting model.
　　According to the telecom model, media signals are transmitted via the 3G network, with TV broadcasters merely serving as content providers. The main industry standard of this model is Qualcomm’s MediaFLO.
　　A war between Europe, the United States and South Korea over mobile TV standards is imminent to some extent. In China, South Korea’s DMB is more widely used in practice.
　　SARFT has yet to decide on a unified standard for China’s mobile phone TV. As a result, various standards coexisted in China. A senior mobile TV expert warned that the potential danger of this trend was the lack of coordination among different regions.
　　“Mobile phone TV may develop in the same manner as China’s cable TV,” said the expert, who spoke only under condition of anonymity. “Every region sticks to its own practice with regional networks and programs. It will be difficult to unify different practices to form a nationwide market.”
　　A big consumer of electronic communications products, China has no technological prowess in this field. To develop its own mobile TV standard is likely to be an uphill battle.
　　Li Jinliang, an expert on the electronic technology committee under the Ministry of Information Industry, is concerned about the future of China’s mobile TV industry. As China does not have an indigenous standard, foreign standards will surely dominate the market, and the Chinese manufacturers will have to pay patent royalties to European and U.S. equipment providers, a replica of the downfall of China’s mobile communications.
　　However, Sheng Zhifan, Associate Chief Engineer of China Cable Network, a company affiliated with the SARFT, said it is almost impossible to charge a special agency with drafting a unified standard before mobile TV obtains a larger market share. Clearly a Catch-22 situation.
　　Liu Jiangping, an expert with France Telecom R&D Beijing, agreed. Different standards will be tested in the pilot projects approved by the SARFT, he said, adding that as none of the standards are perfect, the SARFT is attempting to find the standard best suited to China through these trials.

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