[Ｔｈｅ　３Ｇ　Ｅｒａ] 3G

　　China"s home-grown 3G standard-TD-SCDMA-is beginning to reshuffle the market 　　
　　For some Chinese, choosing a cellphone number is about maximizing luck, and making sure there’s an “8” somewhere is a good bet. Now Chinese cellphone users can have two eights toward the beginning of their mobile numbers.
　　Beginning this month, trial cellphone numbers starting with “188” will be issued in several Chinese cities like Beijing, Qingdao, Xiamen, Baoding and Shanghai.
　　But beyond luck, the number has a lot of significance for China’s 3G (third generation) standard. The numbers, which in fact the 3G standard will operate upon, signal the standard’s entrance into the market after years of experimentation in the laboratory.
　　Tang Ru’an, President of Datang Telecom Technology, which is in charge of the research and development of TD-SCDMA (China’s 3G standard), said that over 1,000 3G cellphone numbers had been issued to the public and at least 20,000 would be issued in the trial procedure.
　　“Technologically, TD-SCDMA can fulfill the needs of 3G commercial operators, and it is good news for large-scale commercial use in the future,” said Tang.
　　At present, Chinese cellphone subscribers are using 2G cellphones, which can only detect and emit audio. However, the 3G pattern is a wider platform, facilitating video calls, faster mobile Internet access, cellphone TV and entertainment.
　　Such advantages are nothing new for countries that have already used WCDMA and CDMA2000. But Chinese consumers have been waiting for years for this to come.
　　
　　China’s choice
　　
　　There are currently three 3G standards in the world: WCDMA from Europe and Japan; CDMA2000 from the United States and South Korea; and China’s TD-SCDMA.
　　However, the 3G license has not been issued yet in China.
　　“Certainly 3G will work for the 2008 Beijing Olympics,” Tang said. The 2008 Beijing Olympic Organizing Committee has set a timetable to have the technology in place 18 months ahead of the Games. The Olympic Games will start in August 2008, and the 3G license must be issued before February 2007, Tang said.
　　Meanwhile mobile service providers are skeptical of the new technology.
　　China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom and China Netcom would rather get the licenses of WCDMA and CDMA 2000.
　　Dong Xiaoyang, an analyst with Norson (Hong Kong) Technology Ltd., said it is understandable that the service providers are suspicious of the function of TD-SCDMA because “any technology growing under the highly competitive WCDMA and CDMA2000 needs time to mature.”
　　WCDMA and CDMA2000 already have the benefit of large-scale production internationally. However, because TD-SCDMA is only for the Chinese market, equipment providers and cellphone manufacturers are cautious about investing in it.
　　Apart from that, the operators’ reluctance in implementing the TD-SCDMA standard has other deep-seated reasons. Lu Tingjie, Dean of the Economics Management School at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, stated that the operators are worrying about their own future development strategy apart from the technology itself.
　　Once they adopt the TD-SCDMA technology, they would have to shoulder the risks in future market scale, international cooperation and international roaming service.
　　“These are the most worrisome elements for service providers,” Lu said. Guided by the dim market prospect, they would least likely choose TD-SCDMA if other choices were also offered.”
　　However, the decision-making Ministry of Information Industry is more in favor of TD-SCDMA.
　　In June 1998, Datang Telecom Technology handed its first proposal draft of the TD-SCDMA standard to the International Telecommunica-tion Union (ITU). On May 5, 2000, ITU formally announced that TD-SCDMA was incorporated into the International Mobile Telecommunications 3G standard draft proposal. From then on, China has possessed its own 3G standard with independent intellectual property rights, and the Chinese Government has since given enormous support for the development of this technology.
　　Up until now, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Information Technology have invested about 1.4 billion yuan into this project.
　　At the 3G in China-2006 Global Summit, Tang revealed that the NDRC and the two ministries had promised to deploy about 200 million yuan for the next step: TD-SCDMA network testing. The 200 million yuan will be distributed proportionally to China Mobile, China Telecom and China Netcom to purchase equipment and network optimizing service.
　　“If TD-SCDMA is to be laid out in Beijing, it is estimated to need 4-5 billion yuan in investment,” said Tao Xiongqiang, Vice President of China Potevio Co. Ltd. Further, if China is going to transfer the 400 million 2G users to 3G in five years, the total investment needed would be around 500-600 billion yuan.
　　Norson commented that in terms of TD-SCDMA, the attitude of the Chinese Government is clear. It gives its full support for the home-grown 3G standard and is pushing to raise TD-SCDMA’s competence to the level of the other two standards.
　　
　　Equipment providers follow closely
　　
　　The 3G standard issuance is good news for 3G equipment manufacturers, who have been waiting for years for a unified standard.
　　That’s because whichever standard the government eventually adopts, some key telecommunication equipment manufacturers like ZTE Corp., Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. and Datang Telecom Technology Co. Ltd. all possess the ability to provide technology to assist its spread.
　　The competence of Chinese manufacturers should transcend that of their foreign rivals in the field of TD-SCDMA network competition.
　　In the commercialization tests of TD-SCDMA starting this month, mobile service providers have teamed up with system equipment manufacturers.
　　China Mobile chose ZTE and TD Tech Holding Ltd. (TD Tech); China Telecom selected Datang and TD Tech; and China Netcom chose ZTE and Datang. Over a dozen cellphone manufacturers also will participate in the testing, including two South Korean companies-Samsung and LG. This marks the first time that TD-SCDMA equipment providers will join the operators in such a test.
　　“Currently, some equipment manufacturers like Huawei and ZTE have been providing whole sets of equipment for overseas 3G users,” said Yang Peifang, assistant chief engineer of the China Academy of Telecommunication Research of the Ministry of Information Industry. “They will come back to seek development in the home market when the timing is right. They are doing the right thing.”
　　Without a doubt, ZTE is a favorite for the 3G operators. ZTE has invested heavily in developing the TD-SCDMA technology before. Joseph Ho, an analyst from the Japanese Daiwa Institute of Research, estimated that 20 percent of the 80 billion yuan needed for TD-SCDMA network development in the first three years will come from ZTE. He estimated that the sales revenue of ZTE will drop 9 percent to 19.5 billion yuan this year compared with last year, while it will jump to 27.7 billion yuan, up 42 percent, next year. Ho contended ZTE’s profit in 2007 will jump 92 percent to 2.8 billion yuan.
　　But analyst Min Lu from Merrill Lynch warned that after the opening of the Chinese 3G market, despite a substantial increase in revenue of those equipment manufacturers, their profit margins will decline. Min suspected that operators will bargain heavily with equipment manufacturers.
　　As foreign telecom equipment manufacturers lack experience in developing TD-SCDMA, international telecom giants such as Nokia, Ericsson, Siemens and Alcatel are seeking cooperation with domestic TD-SCDMA equipment manufacturers for a share of the alluring Chinese market.
　　Siemens is the first overseas telecom giant entering this field. The aggregate investment in TD-SCDMA from Siemens has surpassed 200 million euros. Siemens currently controls its joint venture with Huawei by holding 51 percent of the stock. Alcatel has contributed 250 million yuan to work in cooperation with Datang and is going beyond just manufacturing toward research and development.
　　In contrast, Ericsson and Nokia, which have a competitive edge in the WCDMA market, lag behind in making substantial progress in their cooperation with ZTE and Potevio, with the focus on seeking future market share instead.
　　Recently, Li Minxiang, Director of the Global Software Group China Center of Motorola (China), said that Motorola is going to seek cooperation with domestic TD-SCDMA equipment manufacturers in order to penetrate the Chinese market after the 3G license is issued.
　　“The pattern of cooperation can be a joint venture or a strategic alliance,” said Li.
　　Liu Peng, Vice General Manager of ZTE, pointed out that his company’s cooperation with foreign capital would first focus on building up a core technology platform and introduce a joint product to the market. After the brand is well recognized in the market, the company will come up with its own products.
　　“If the market is to be explored, the leading European and American companies will follow closely,” Jiang Hongrui, a research fellow of LG, said. “The last and the best chance for domestic manufacturers is the time before foreign companies sweep in.”
　　

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