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　　As the Shanghai Cooperation Organization celebrates its fifth anniversary, 　　experts at home and abroad are invited to comment on the organization"s
　　development at a seminar co-sponsored by International Review magazine and
　　Fudan University in Shanghai. Excerpts follow:
　　
　　Achievements and drawbacks
　　
　　Pan Guang (Consultant at the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies, Fudan University, and Director of the Center for Shanghai Cooperation Organization Studies under the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences): The SCO has been successful mainly in four areas: resolving the border issues left over from history, cracking down on cross-border vile forces detrimental to all nations, promoting the sound development of regional cooperation and safeguarding the stability and security of Central Asia. Viewed from a deeper perspective, these achievements serve as a telling example for the world in the quest for peace and development.
　　S. Lousianing (Professor at the Mos-cow Institute of International Relations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs): The main achievement of the SCO lies in the daring efforts of Beijing and Moscow to jointly define the concept of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. From 2000 to 2002, the SCO responded slowly to the challenges from Islamic extremists, the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, and the United States’ establishment of bases in Central Asia. However, as it forged ahead in terms of both theory and practice, the organization had become not only a regional organization but also a global structure exerting a purely political influence on global processes by 2005, as distinctively illustrated by the admission of India, Iran and Pakistan as observers.
　　The SCO has tended to adopt a multidimensional approach in its development. It is dedicated to economic cooperation and integration apart from combating terrorism, separatism and extremism.
　　The SCO is expected to maintain institutional expansion so as to meet global and regional challenges flexibly. The SCO is not a military and political alliance and does not target any third country or organization. In private, however, it is believed to be an organization targeting NATO and the United States in Central Asia. In other words, Russia and China can allegedly take the initiative in the complicated multilateral situation in the Middle East and Northeast Asia through the SCO.
　　A major drawback of the organization is that its observer status system has no definite goals, leaving an impression that naming observers is intended to “comfort” countries that hope to join the organization-India, Pakistan and Iran. The creation of the observer status system is a tactic. Sooner or later, the SCO will have to define its relationship with observer states strategically.
　　With regard to the Afghanistan issue, the SCO has yet to improve its cooperation with the United States and its allies. The SCO may be unable to independently address issues such as the revival of the Taliban and the rampant drug trafficking in Afghanistan.
　　The SCO delivered few tangible benefits to less developed Central Asian nations such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It responded too slowly to regional tragedies such as the Andijan incident in Uzbekistan and the “color revolutions.” The organization only came up with political evaluations of these events after they happened.
　　B. Sultanov (Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan): The major achievements of the SCO can be summed up as follows: It attracted an ever-growing interest from the international community; Central Asian countries, Russia and China came to realize that they must coordinate with each other in an effort to resolve the most pressing regional issues; cooperation in the SCO expanded from collective security and a crackdown on the “three forces” of terrorism, separatism and extremism to such fields as the economy, culture and human resources; based on equality, mutual benefit and cooperation and aimed at consolidating regional peace, security and stability, the SCO provided a successful example for a new type of organization in Eurasia; the SCO promoted multipolarity in international relations; the SCO evolved from bilateral cooperation to a higher-level multilateral cooperation and from an organization devoted to safeguarding the border region to one that is committed to fighting terrorism and extremism and developing economic and trade cooperation with coordinated action, offering applicable experiences to other regions in the world; and, at a time when the global anti-terror campaign coincides with the complication of relations between major powers, the SCO is poised to play a greater role as a sub-regional organization.
　　
　　Opportunities and challenges
　　
　　Shi Ze (Consultant at the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies, Fudan University, and Professor at the China Institute of International Studies): In the medium term, a changing Central Asia will pose a variety of challenges to the SCO’s development.
　　First, the heightening political instability in Central Asian countries has already exerted a negative influence on the future development of the SCO. Faced with the increasingly prominent domestic problems of its Central Asian member states, the SCO has yet to come up with effective solutions. Second, the complex relations between Central Asian countries are likely to hold back the SCO’s efforts to promote economic cooperation. Third, external forces have intensified their efforts to interrupt and restrain the development of the SCO with newly adjusted strategies. For example, Islamic extremists are gathering strength, attempting to take advantage of any change in the internal environment of Central Asia. In addition, as a result of the escalating Iranian nuclear issue, Central Asia and its neighboring regions have become an area of fierce contention among various forces.
　　Pan Guang: The SCO has traveled a successful yet bumpy path. Since the beginning of 2005, another series of dramatic changes have taken place in Central Asia- new developments that have profound implications for the SCO and its members.
　　S. Lousianing: In the next five years, the SCO is expected to encounter old problems such as Islamic extremism, separatism and drug trafficking. However, these chronic problems will take more radical forms. Countries that share the Fergana Valley, namely Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, may suffer from regional instability caused by extremist forces.
　　M. Chanachev (Vice Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan): The SCO will have to face the following challenges in the next five years: energy shortages; anti-dumping and protectionism in international trade; instability in the world’s financial system and discriminatory currency convertibility policies; population, migration, poverty and unemployment; instability in the SCO’s neighboring countries; terrorism, extremism, separatism and their sponsors, drug trafficking, the illegal trade of weapons of mass destruction and human trafficking; the export of “color revolutions” or counter-revolutions; disagreements among SCO member states; the ostensible rather than substantial implementation of the SCO’s resolutions; bureaucratic tendencies in the SCO organizational structure, and the information siege imposed by the West around the SCO regarding its policies and activities.
　　Murat Suiunbaev (Vice Principal of the Diplomacy Academy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kyrgyzstan): Challenges to be faced by the SCO are: the competition between Russia and China and between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and the risks of expansion. Admitting new members too quickly may ruin the SCO.
　　V. Paramonov (Research Coordinator, Center for Economic Research, Uzbekis-tan): If the economic relations between member states remain what they used to be, with Central Asia, as well as Russia to a certain extent, being suppliers of natural resources and China being a supplier of manufactured goods, a crisis may occur.
　　
　　What are the SCO’s priorities?
　　
　　Wang Haiyun (Consultant at the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies, Fudan University, and former Military Attaché of the Chinese Embassy in Russia): Properly handling the following problems is vital to the future development of the SCO:
　　First, the SCO should adhere to its orientation as a “Central Asian regional cooperation organization.” It is expected to focus on the Central Asian region, meaning that it should not take in members from outside the region. While it has reason to accept countries in the neighboring regions as observers and distant ones as dialogue countries, it should not grant formal member status to these countries.
　　Second, the notion of a “new state-to-state relationship” should be put into practice. The vigor and vitality of the SCO originate from its distinctive philosophy of a “new state-to-state relationship” that it recognized from the beginning-the “Shanghai spirit,” with “mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for different civilizations and pursuit of common development” at the core. It abandoned the confrontational mentality of the Cold War era and charted a new course of development characterized by “common prosperity and common security.” The new relationship is crucial to Central Asia, a region where a variety of ethnic groups and civilizations coexist.
　　Third, the SCO’s solidarity and ability to act should be strengthened. The key to enhanced solidarity lies in improved political mutual trust and practical benefits. To strengthen mutual trust requires the concerted efforts of all member countries. Apart from the regular exchange mechanisms of high-level leaders and government departments, non-governmental exchanges, including cultural and academic exchanges, as well as cooperation between media organizations should be promoted. In order to make sure that every initiative of the organization brings concrete benefits to the member states, the concerns of all member states should be taken into account when formulating cooperative programs. The SCO is expected to start with matters that are the most urgent and the easiest to tackle. To that end, the organization’s action mechanisms should be improved. The authority of the secretariat should be expanded, enabling the secretary-general to take independent action regarding breaking incidents when the Council of Heads of State is not in session.
　　Fourth, the economy and security should be taken as two key areas of cooperation. As they generally lag behind in terms of economic development, SCO members are eager to reinvigorate their economies through cooperation within the framework of the organization. In addition to trade facilitation, cooperation needs to be carried out in the energy field and the construction of transportation networks. At the same time, urgency is mounting for the SCO members to cooperate in the security field as external forces incite “revolution” and the “three forces” cause turmoil.
　　Pan Guang: Looking ahead, the SCO faces several major issues that must be dealt with urgently: making a substantive breakthrough in economic cooperation, furthering cooperation in the security field, promoting cultural cooperation in a down-to-earth manner and stepping up exchanges with other countries and regions and making expansions prudently. After accepting four observers, how to deal with potential partners that are unlikely to become members or observers such as the United States, the EU and Japan becomes an important issue facing the SCO. One possible solution is to establish partnership relations with such countries following the examples of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and NATO.
　　Tang Zhuchang (Deputy Director of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies and the Center for Shanghai Cooperation Organization Studies under Fudan University): Economic benefits and economic security are essential to countries today. Without a fierce impetus for economic cooperation, a regional organization will not be able to enjoy lasting and strong solidarity. In light of this, special importance should be attached to regional economic cooperation within the framework of the SCO, a task that is extremely urgent at present.
　　Arun Mohanty (Director of the Eurasian Foundation, India): India and Pakistan’s joining as observers has both advantages and disadvantages. One advantage is that the two countries can use the SCO to tackle their conflicts such as the Kashmir issue. However, the hostility between India and Pakistan may weaken the organization. Another advantage is that the SCO can help combat cross-border terrorism in the Pakistani border region.
　　As a leading security organization in the region, the SCO should enhance its status and force external forces to withdraw from the region. It should play a leading role in maintaining peace, security and stability in Asia, becoming a major channel for resolving regional conflicts on the Asian continent and a main actor in dealing with matters such as security and stability in Asia. Moreover, the SCO will probably become a leader in resolving security and regional cooperation issues in Asia. However, it does not have enough resources to shape a basic structure to fulfill these tasks at present.
　　Maqsud Ul Hasan Nuri (Senior Research Fellow at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Pakistan): The SCO is an organization made up of countries with different ideologies and economic and cultural backgrounds. It has yet to make the most of its potential. Although it has established ties with the UN and UN members, it is still found wanting in terms of economic cooperation.
　　Major tasks for the organization: It should reach a strategic consensus on a series of important issues; it needs to strengthen economic ties with Central Asian countries by formulating an economic development strategy like the Marshall Plan and establishing an organization modeled on the former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance; China should enhance cultural and educational exchanges with other members; and the SCO needs to enhance its own image through the media.
　　
　　What are the SCO’s prospects?
　　
　　S. Lousianing: The SCO should explore new forms and new areas of cooperation in the next five years. While maintaining its basic role as a regional security organization, it should make new strides in other areas before crises arise because of conservatism and stagnation. In the five years to come, the SCO may move closer to the Collective Security Treaty Organization and Eurasian Economic Community, thereby reshaping the post-Soviet Union grouping--the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)--through the joint efforts of Russia and China. The trend, of course, will result in accusations against the two countries of attempting to replace the CIS with Russia-China supremacy.
　　Arun Mohanty: China, Russia and India are major Asian powers, with each pursuing an independent foreign policy. Cooperation among them will fundamentally prevent the world from becoming unipolar, an outcome that runs counter to their interests. They have already made a small step toward trilateral cooperation. If they hope to continue this cooperation, they should use the SCO as the main platform. India should be admitted as a full member, which will introduce a totally different form and content to the organization. The equal status of India and Pakistan in the SCO will greatly serve the interests of the two major Asian powers.
　　In the next five years, the SCO should expand its membership, concentrate on improving the basic structure, and promote regional cooperation in the fields of security and development. It should also make efforts to establish a development bank, push for an Asian common market and construct a cooperative security structure.

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